Regime Monitor
Two-axis macroeconomic regime classification · OECD CLI × CPI signal· Jun 17, 2026
Current Regime
Heating Up
Late-cycle expansion. Value, Dividend, Size hold the edge.
Growth
↑ Rising
Inflation
↑ Rising
Factor Guidance
Mkt-RF
↑
SMB
↑
HML
↑
RMW
↑
CMA
↑
Mom
—
OECD CLIUS Composite Leading Indicator — Growth Signal
CPI YoYYear-over-year inflation vs 3yr avg — Inflation Signal
Yield Curve10yr − 2yr Treasury spread (T10Y2YM) — Growth Signal
HY SpreadICE BofA US High-Yield OAS — Risk Appetite Signal
Historical Factor Behavior by Regime
| Regime | Mkt-RF | SMB | HML | RMW | CMA | Mom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldilocks | ↑ | ↑ | — | — | — | ↑↑ |
| Heating Up | ↑ | ↑ | ↑ | ↑ | ↑ | — |
| Stagflation | ↓ | ↓ | — | ↑↑ | ↑ | ↓ |
| Contraction | ↓ | ↓ | ↓ | ↑↑ | — | ↓ |
Source: S&P Global — A Historical Perspective on Factor Index Performance Across Macroeconomic Cycles (2024) · Growth signal: OECD CLI direction · Inflation signal: CPI 3m avg vs 36m avg